How hijab verdict will shape Karnataka elections

Karnataka has seen charges and counter-charges by leaders of both BJP and Congress ever since the hijab controversy erupted. Different political players, especially at the local level, allowed the controversy to reach alarming proportions because they hoped to reap maximum political benefits from this escalation of tensions. As the full implications of this week’s high court judgment sink in, it remains to be seen how political parties will leverage it to gain crucial electoral points. Would it be an easy way to side-step issues of governance and development? With Basavaraj Bommai having taken over as chief minister just eight months ago, the state assembly election is 14 months away. Although a snap poll can be held earlier, Bommai may well need all these remaining months to create a perception in the mind of the voter that under him there has been a visibly improved delivery of services. BJP decision-makers may also feel the need to give the CM a chance to firmly establish his credentials. This is after all a state where voters have followed a revolving door policy, defeating the governing party in every successive election since 1985. It is another story that in 2004 and 2018, the governing party did not secure a majority but cobbled together an alliance and formed the government anyway. Past elections in India have seen both majority and minority consolidation around the time of elections. Even as it is debated as to which consolidation (majority or minority) is the cause and which the effect, the impact on elections has not been uniform. West Bengal, Assam, Bihar and more recently Uttar Pradesh and Goa are examples of such consolidations having very different electoral impacts. In Karnataka, it was convenient for different political players not to nip the controversy in the bud and also to allow it to be placed in the lap of the HC. The calculation was that an HC judgment would serve different political players in two ways. First, it would insulate them from the blame that could flow from implementation of a policy. Secondly, it would give them all an opportunity to position their political strategy in the run-up to the state assembly election. medium nocaption90297091 Coastal Karnataka and select urban pockets have been witness to a growing communal polarisation for over two decades now. Elections in this period have seen stiff competition between Congress and BJP, with JD(S) seeming to be content playing the game of a distant third player in the race. More often than not, the track record of performance of the incumbent government has defined the nature of the electoral outcome. With the state having had both Congress and BJP governments in the last two decades, each of which found it difficult to win back the mandate, public perception of the work done by the government has seemed to be the pivot around which electoral decisions have revolved. This time around there is the potential of a new issue grabbing centre stage. The caution with which Congress leaders have reacted to the hijab judgment is indicative of their intention to tread carefully on the matter. Leader of opposition Siddaramaiah has asserted that, “all must bow down to the verdict.” KPCC president DK Shivakumar has placed the onus on the government – to protect law and order, promote religious harmony, and ensure that pursuit of education goes uninterrupted. Reading between the lines, it is clear that Congress wishes to approach the issue with caution and not to alienate the majority community. By shifting the focus to development, law and order and welfare, the party hopes it can go on the offensive against the governing party. However, the key question is can the state unit of the party demonstrate visible unity and be less reactive and more proactive? Of course, the state unit also has to deal with a central Congress leadership which lacks both direction and the energy to lead. As for BJP, the judgment has come as a shot in the arm. Ever since the new CM took over eight months ago he had been making a conscious effort to emerge out of the shadows of his predecessor, whom he has acknowledged as his mentor. While it was clear that he had the full backing of the central leadership of the party, he appeared to be taking too much time to fully settle down and assert his presence. The HC judgment could well be the opportunity he was waiting for to galvanise the party cadres. The Karnataka unit of BJP is unique in important ways. A big chunk of its legislators had won the last election on another party’s ticket. Even among those who won in 2018 on the BJP ticket, many had only moved to the party over the last decade. Many of them are already apprehensive about whether they will be re-nominated. Would the remaining 14 months also be used to focus on those developmental indicators where the state seems to have slipped behind? In BJP’s return to office in UP, the visible impact of welfare schemes and cash transfers to distressed families did play a crucial role. Is there a message in that for both BJP and Congress as they set their agendas for the next election? Fourteen months is an agonisingly long time in politics. The cut and thrust of politics in the state could change dramatically in this period. The writer is the National Coordinator of Lokniti Network. Views are personalIllustration by Varani Sahu